“Should I have fewer children to lower my impact on climate change?” This is a question that is often raised in the debate on how we can reduce our personal emissions .
We’ll try to answer it, focussing mainly on the developed world. For developing nations, we must take a different perspective, which will be covered in our course ’A Fair World’. Now, onto the question!
On average, each person on Earth is responsible for around 5 tons of CO₂ emissions per year . This, however, varies greatly depending on which country the person is in. In the US, 16 tons of consumption-based CO₂ are emitted per person each year . In India this number was only 1.84 tons per person per year in 2016 .
比較各國的二氧化碳排放量
發達國家每個人貢獻的高排放使得一些人認為，通過減少孩子數量，我們可以減少碳足跡。情況真的是這樣嗎？
少生孩子真的會減少排放嗎？
Remember the climate equation from the Crash Course?
Total emissions = P x E x C
Where P = population, E = emissions per service and C= consumption of services per person . By having fewer children, we would reduce P, which would in turn decrease carbon emissions, right?
Well, let’s look at some predictions. The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has a set of models that predict carbon emissions based on policy choices and technology, known as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) . The specific model that best fits current climate policies is called SSP2 .
What if we used the SSP2’s projections for carbon emissions from 2020-2100 for wealthy countries to determine emissions associated with having a child?
We find that having one fewer child in a wealthy country would reduce an individual’s carbon footprint by 7.8 tons per year over an 80-year lifespan.
As you can see, all of these developed countries have constrictive population pyramids and will face population ageing and shrinking if birth rates continue as they are .
In Japan, the low birth rate has caused shifts in education, while an increasingly elderly population has forced the government to reconsider its policies regarding labor, healthcare, and taxation .
如何解決人口老齡化和人口減少的問題？
Well, increase the birth rate!
A key statistic to determine if a population will shrink is the total fertility rate (TFR): the average number of children per woman in her lifetime .
For a population to remain constant, a TFR of around 2.1 is needed . However, some developed countries have a TFR of only 0.98 . How can these countries implement policies to increase this number?
In Singapore, policies have provided financial and marriage incentives, as well as support for parents to balance work and family .
地球寶寶的家庭
Policies used in other countries include maternity/paternity leave, family allowances, and subsidized child care .
But is it ethical to have children in the age of climate change? Some people in developed countries argue that having children would be unethical as it would increase the amount of people contributing to climate change and expose future generations to climate-related risks .
Children are vulnerable to the effects of climate change, especially children in developing countries. Climate change may incur physical harm due to high temperatures, natural disasters, and decreased availability of nutritious food. Climate change may also cause mental and psychological distress, as well as decreased availability of education for some children .
.png&oldid=441865)
